Poll Confusion?
Well guys, it seems that we've got our answer to that whole consensus question we had a few days ago: Gallup just released another poll.
This new poll puts Bush well ahead of Kerry, with 55 percent to 42 percent and a 4 point margin of error. Thats a 13 point lead - compared that to the Pew poll a few days ago, where the two of them were neck and neck!
Lets think back to the last election now - we had the same thing happen with Gore's numbers at this point, and he ended up winning the popular vote.
Why can this be? Is it that polling is an unreliable science? Of course! Polling isn't even really a science, unless you count it with those fake sciences like phrenemology, astrology, or, uhhh, psychology. Oftentimes the methedology pollsters use is kept secret, away from public scrutiny.
And when it does come out, what do we find? Well, this for example. Apparently the sample the Gallup poll took leans heavily to the right. Now, this is clearly a left wing blog - it would be nice to see if we could get similar data from the recent Pew poll and compare them, perhaps both were weighted towards one side in particular.
How can this sort of thing happen? Well, a large section of Democratic voters are young people, and this article proposes that many pollsters are missing the younger generation by ignoring people that use their cell phones as their primary means of communication (or people like me, a likely voter who doesn't even own a phone at all!).
Unfortunately both of these articles seem to have a liberal slant - maybe the polling numbers will shift back towards Kerry and we will get some conservative viewpoints as to why the polls are so biased ;).
This new poll puts Bush well ahead of Kerry, with 55 percent to 42 percent and a 4 point margin of error. Thats a 13 point lead - compared that to the Pew poll a few days ago, where the two of them were neck and neck!
Lets think back to the last election now - we had the same thing happen with Gore's numbers at this point, and he ended up winning the popular vote.
Why can this be? Is it that polling is an unreliable science? Of course! Polling isn't even really a science, unless you count it with those fake sciences like phrenemology, astrology, or, uhhh, psychology. Oftentimes the methedology pollsters use is kept secret, away from public scrutiny.
And when it does come out, what do we find? Well, this for example. Apparently the sample the Gallup poll took leans heavily to the right. Now, this is clearly a left wing blog - it would be nice to see if we could get similar data from the recent Pew poll and compare them, perhaps both were weighted towards one side in particular.
How can this sort of thing happen? Well, a large section of Democratic voters are young people, and this article proposes that many pollsters are missing the younger generation by ignoring people that use their cell phones as their primary means of communication (or people like me, a likely voter who doesn't even own a phone at all!).
Unfortunately both of these articles seem to have a liberal slant - maybe the polling numbers will shift back towards Kerry and we will get some conservative viewpoints as to why the polls are so biased ;).
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