States of Matter

All right guys. Time to shift focus and zoom in on a few state polls. Since I went to great lengths yesterday to explain the importance of the electoral college and individual states, today I'll focus in on some key (and no so key) state races and see what we can gleam from that.

Pennsylvania: Here, an ABC poll essentially puts the two candidates in a dead heat. Bush has 49 percent to Kerry's 48 percent, with a margin of error of 3.5 for likely voters, and 3 for registered voters. Pennsylvania holds 21 electoral votes.

Michigan: In a CNN poll Kerry is leading Bush 50 percent to 44 percent, with 1 percent for Nader and a 4 point margin of Error. Michigan's tasty filling is 17 electoral votes.

New York: According to two different New York polls, Kerry is leading Bush in New York. A Quinnipac University poll has Kerry leading Bush 47 percent to 41 percent, with Nader at 4 percent, with a margin of error of 3. A Marist college poll had Kerry at 48 percent, Bush at 40 percent, and Nader at 4 percent, with a 3.5 margin of error.

So what does all this mean? The New York polls are telling because Bush is doing surprising well in a heavily democratic state. Michigan is interesting because, if you'll check the headline, CNN is calling it too close to call - though in other polls with similar numbers have been labled as "widening leads". And Pennsylvania is worth looking at because a tip in either direction will have a signifigant effect on how the candidates spend their money in the upcoming weeks.

Economic Indicator

Also released today was the TIPP Economic indicator - which shows consumer optimism dipping slightly since August, but Presidential leadership numbers even higher than last month.
Funny, that.