Dead Heat?

Ahh, you think, I must be referring to the Joe Piscapo/Treat Williams film featuring the final performance of Vincent Price. Good stuff. And it had a zombie pig in it.

Because of course there is no reason I could be referring to the election. After all, George Bush is pulling ahead, as several new poll numbers show. Indeed, were one to look at a group of the latest poll numbers, we would see that this is true. But no, you say! Why, wasn't it yesterday that I talked about about the numbers were so darn deceptive?

Quiet, you! Yesterday, if you'll recall, I discussed the importance of consensus in identifying polling trends and such. And you'll find, that while there is no real consensus as to the extent of Bush's gains, there was consensus as the fact that, overall, he is ahead.

Ok, so end of story. You wanna know if you can sleep for the next six weeks. The election is just a popularity contest, right? Or rather, a popular vote contest? Harhar!

Surely not, you say. That's rediculous, you say. Please leave me alone and stop calling my house, you say. Because you know, of course, that it's the electoral college that really makes the difference here. We wrote about it yesterday, remember?

But there is more too it. I'm gonna show you some graphs and charts now. Ross Perot would be proud. Lets look here. This is basically similar to the Gallup summary of electoral college numbers, with one really cool difference - it alters the size of the states based on how large their electoral college contribution is. Suddenly Florida looks alot more important, huh?

The idea here is that the popular vote right now, overall, is not that important. In a race as close as this, we need to keep a close eye on actual electoral vote numbers based on who is ahead in individual states. Mark my word, we will see some more fluctuations before Nov. 2nd, whether it ends up coming ahead for Bush or Kerry in the end.

Ok, you can go back to watching the Alf talk show now.