Numbers Showdown
Calm down guys. Take your hands off your ears, don't worry. I know you've been hearing alot lately, from both camps - assault weapons ban, National Guard memos, Nader in Florida - so lets push all that to the side, for now.
We don't need that stuff. It's not going to tell us the one thing we want to know about the candidates: boxers or briefs. Am I right guys? Tell me I'm right.
Ok, I'm wrong. I'm trying to make a point here: we're getting to a sort of nether zone in the election period - after the conventions, but before the debates. Just over a month and a half to go. A point when everyone starts to really care about numbers. So lets look at a few of them, and then lets tear 'em apart.
First up, the Gallup Showdown. This one is great because it shows us electoral college numbers based on in-state polling. Right now Bush is up at 309, and Kerry has 229. If you take a look at the map, you'll see a division between the swing states - of the eight of them Gallup has listed, only Oregon and Iowa are going to Kerry. Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Florida are predicted for Bush.
Next lets look at a couple of other recent polls that finished the 9th of September, both of which show Bush ahead. The Newsweek poll shows Bush's lead slipping , to six points, while a Time poll still shows Bush with a 11 point lead over Kerry.
Compare this with another more recent poll by Investor's Business Daily. In this poll, Kerry and Bush are neck and neck even if you factor in Nader.
If you check the polling questions here side by side (you might have to scroll a bit), you'll find that, in this instance at least, they're all pretty similar.
So then what exactly going on here? Is Bush keeping his bounce? Or losing it? I think neither. The best thing about contrary poll numbers, especially when there are alot of them, is that they show the wavering, unsteady political climate.
For example, scientists cannot absolutely prove a great deal of their theories, so they do the next best thing: build consensus through repeated experimentation. When we have a bunch of polls like this, without consensus, it only shows one thing: That nothing is for certain.
Except, of course, another six seasons of that new TV hit Joey.
We don't need that stuff. It's not going to tell us the one thing we want to know about the candidates: boxers or briefs. Am I right guys? Tell me I'm right.
Ok, I'm wrong. I'm trying to make a point here: we're getting to a sort of nether zone in the election period - after the conventions, but before the debates. Just over a month and a half to go. A point when everyone starts to really care about numbers. So lets look at a few of them, and then lets tear 'em apart.
First up, the Gallup Showdown. This one is great because it shows us electoral college numbers based on in-state polling. Right now Bush is up at 309, and Kerry has 229. If you take a look at the map, you'll see a division between the swing states - of the eight of them Gallup has listed, only Oregon and Iowa are going to Kerry. Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Florida are predicted for Bush.
Next lets look at a couple of other recent polls that finished the 9th of September, both of which show Bush ahead. The Newsweek poll shows Bush's lead slipping , to six points, while a Time poll still shows Bush with a 11 point lead over Kerry.
Compare this with another more recent poll by Investor's Business Daily. In this poll, Kerry and Bush are neck and neck even if you factor in Nader.
If you check the polling questions here side by side (you might have to scroll a bit), you'll find that, in this instance at least, they're all pretty similar.
So then what exactly going on here? Is Bush keeping his bounce? Or losing it? I think neither. The best thing about contrary poll numbers, especially when there are alot of them, is that they show the wavering, unsteady political climate.
For example, scientists cannot absolutely prove a great deal of their theories, so they do the next best thing: build consensus through repeated experimentation. When we have a bunch of polls like this, without consensus, it only shows one thing: That nothing is for certain.
Except, of course, another six seasons of that new TV hit Joey.
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