Poll Solution

The end is nigh, right? After all those hurricains, the Red Sox winning, the whole Ashley Simpson thing - the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse are here, and they're all carrying iPod minis.

I've been doing some thinking on polling and the end of the election based on a recent conversation I had with some friends.

Columbia is an incredibly liberal campus. However, most of my friends are relatively conservative, and do not make a good representation of the campus. New York itself is overwhelmingly liberal and in favor of Kerry, in this election especially I have seen the polarization of campus to agreat extent. Perhaps Eighty-Percent favor Kerry, and then maybefive percent are republicans, and the rest Socialists or Libertarians or Greens or Whigs.

As I said, however, many of my friends are in the Republican party here on campus, and on Friday night my Sri Lankan room mate got us to spend four hours trying to convince him who to vote for if he would be able to vote.

"Us" included two fairly liberal girls, a staunch party line conservative, a very moderate conservative who has become somewhat disenfranchised with the Bush administration, and a fiscal conservative who leans left on social issues but does not feel comfortable with several Libertarian goals and therefor remains party-less (if you haven't guessed, thats me).

We argued about every single issue that came up this election. Bythe end, you could tell who everyone was going to vote for - the party line Republican was voting for Bush, the girls for Kerry. The two of us more in the middle were considering handing in ballots with blank entries for the Presidential candidates (Not voting was out of the question for all of us except the Sri Lankan). Of course, I couldn't tell for sure, I don't have the brain scanner pollsters would like to have.

By the end of the night, the Sri Lankan still couldn't decide.

Ultimately this close election is going to come down to the samething most close elections come down to: who actually shows up to the ballot on election day. We probably won't learn anything we don't know about the favor of the American people from this election.

One important thing will happen, however. Many, many polls are goingto be proved wrong. Whoever wins. There are going to be questions that need to be answered, because the discrepencies between pollsters are too great, because the race is too close, to impossible to call. It is not like this. In reality, if polls were conducted like the census, there would be a clear, if narrow winner.

Even now, even already. There will be an election winner on November 2nd, and it will be either John Kerry or George Bush. There will be no electoral vote tie. Someone will receive more than 270. There will also be many losers, and those will be the pollsters - because this election will prove, whoever wins, that so many of them are wrong. That they need to open up their methodology, like Gallup does.

And if this happens, everybody wins.

Poll-arization

All right guys. Today is the call in part of the show, that special part of the show where you all leave comments for this post and which only happens today.

If that sentence was too much to handle, here is what I'm trying to say:

I am looking for your thoughts on the sort of direction you would like this web site to go after the election. Please leave comments for today's post. There is a poll on the right side of the page you should also take. Please, any comments on aspects of this site and my commentary that you like or dislike are fair game.

Think I should have more tech polls? Let me know! Think I should write more about Ashley Simpson!? Wayyy ahead of you, she is on the poll. But please leave comments and I will read every one. After all, I can't take out the trash if I don't know where it is.

The polling trash, that is.

In real polling news, a few more articles are available on possible problems with either polling or the actual voting systems.

There is an excellent Washington Post article (pound of human flesh required for registration) on how inaccurate recent polls have been. Excellent in the, "would have been excellent about six months ago" kind of way.

However, there is very real evidence that voters are not comfortable with the state of political polling.

Technology is changing things pretty rapidly, and if you're like me, you hate anything that is new, unless its a sequel, like the Apprentice 2, in which case its hot. Seriously, many voters do seem to be made nervous by the new technology.

So we can't trust the actual polls, can't trust the actual elections - what can we trust?
Treat Williams, that's who. He just keeps putting out quality films year after year.

But none are better than Dead Heat. He played a character called Rigor Mortis. Oh yeah!

I'm Allergic To Pollin'

I am also absolutely incapable of making clever puns. This does not prevent me from making lots and lots of absolutely horrible puns, however, like the one in the title.

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is the only thing that really keeps my low-brow, uninformed commentary apart from the likes of a real polling blog, like this one: mystery pollster.
Then again, Mystery Pollster is created by a grizzled veteran of the polling industry, and not some twenty-year old undergrad with too much time on his hands. Not that that is me.

Anyway, luckily for me his page mostly concentrates on the polling process, while I'm trying to round up recent polls and help you figure out what they really mean. Or, in other words, he's doing real work, and I'm just posting half a dozen links every day. In other words, Mystery Pollster, if you ever get to read this - I like you like Carson Daily likes NBC for keeping him on TV even though he is an idiot, and I'm jealous.

So now that that is out of the way, lets get to the good stuff.

First, Hawaii is shaping up to be a real battleground state. It was thought to be pretty solidly Democratic, but if this state is leaning towards Bush it could mean bad things for Kerry. Then again, Ashley Simpson getting caught lip sinking didn't hurt her career, so what do I know.

Second, the most recent polls out of pretty much everywhere just aren't showing us anything. All signs point in opposite directions. Is Bush ahead in Florida? I'm sure tomorrow another poll will tell us completely different. Nationally, Zogby, the pollster who most pundits consistently accuse of being slanted Democratic, (besides the ones who actually have affiliations) is the one putting Bush solidly ahead!

This year alot of crazy things are going on. We've already touched on the cell phone issue pretty frequently. Also, due to changing rules, alot more voters can vote in advance of the election. Most Americans seem ready for a repeat of 2000. Me, I've got my popcorn and soda, and my Ashley Simpson lipsinking tape ready, in case I get bored watching all of the coverage we're sure to get and need something more informative/entertaining/meaningful.

Wired seems to agree with me. Not about the Ashley Simpson (though I'm sure they do on that count too) but about the state of polling in general. It pretty much argues goes along with the whole "fake news" idea I posted yesterday, which makes me happy, because I posted that yesterday but this article came out today, meaning that I am thinking of the same sort of ideas people who get paid to write are thinking of and therefore can be assured steady and satisfying work upon completion of my undergraduate degree. Right?

Of course not. I will faily in life, just like I failed in AP calculus. Which is why the sort of electoral vote calculus (great article!) practiced by electoral-vote.com is completely beyond me for the most part. And, by proxy, any actual insight into the election as well. But you're all smart people. You all don't even know who Ashley Simpson is. I'm sure you'll be fine.

One Week Summary

No links today folks, though I've got a whole bunch I'm saving up for
Wednesday.

The election is coming up real soon, and I thought that now would be a
good time to explain the purpose of this blog, and how the most recent
polling news seems to justified it's continued existence.

In the past I've brought up the topic of consensus, and if you've been
reading you know I don't believe a poll until I see a few more with
the same data. The problem is, though I do this, major media outlets
do not. For the great majority of the time, they report polls by
themselves as they come in.

And though this would be fine if pollsters were truly adhearing to a
scientific method when polling, in the current envirornment it lends a
level of signifigance to polls that they most likely do not deserve.
For example, tomorrow I will be reporting on a whole slew (upwards of
ten) polls that have been, or are being, released on the overall
popular vote. The amazing thing is that several of these polls, from
some really big name pollsters, show very different numbers. Someone
has to be wrong if one poll shows Kerry ahead by one percent, within
the margin of error, but another shows Bush leading by eight percent.
And yet we've had this happen not once but several times in the past
weeks.

Not that pollsters aren't aware of such topics. Zogby will often even
discuss these issues. But the problem is that these polls are treated
as normal news items. The difference between the pollsters is not
readily apparent if you're browsing headlines. And so oftentimes polls
are mis-reported and mis-represented.

This is not going to end with the election, and neither will this
blog. In the future, as the flow of polling data returns to normal
levels, we will begin to more closely scrutinize the actual
methodology pollsters use.

Poll Confusion

It's been a while, but I have a huge article coming up later today. I think that it is entirely possible that right now one of the candidates is actually pulling away in the election but that the numbers aren't showing it - and I'm going to tell you why.

For now, read this article about "how to read polls" from CNN.com. I'll be ripping it apart later tonight, just like SNL ripped up Ashley Simpson. Hehe.

Newsfilters and the Polls that Love Them

Today I have to take out the trash. The polling trash. Hoho, you're in for it now!

First up, an update to yesterday's post about alternate indicators:

This poll from Channel One TV (a channel they play in public schools for "news") shows teenagers supporting Bush for president...

...and this poll from the American Bible Society shows that two-thirds of American children want a President whom is a man of strong faith...

...but those annoying college students look like they're leaning towards Kerry.

I'm not sure where they show Channel One in schools...it might be worth checking out exactly what kind of schools use it's services, as their numbers are so much different from Nickelodeon's yesteday.

Finally, I thought you might like to know where I go for my own polling/election news this time of year. I normally wouldn't give away my sources, but just in case I suddenly am abducted by aliens/illuminati/schrodinger's cat you probably should know where to go for polling news.

You probably notice that I quote Electoral-Vote.com here quite often, because they have the prettiest graphs and update daily. But what you might not know, and probably should, is that they lean Democratic (though not too much, I still find their data useful) so I make sure I check the Hedgehog Report to balance it out.

Other sites with excellent compilations of various polling and electoral vote data include: Alan San Croix, though he can get a bit behind, and unfutz, which has so much information it makes my eyes fall out.

So you might want to keep these sites in mind in the upcoming weeks. Also, keep checking pollingreport.com for your raw poll info - it's getting very close!!!

Too bad I can't say say the same for the Sox-Yankees game last night!!! Oooooh!!!!

Altered Reality

So far we've spent all our time looking at so called "legit" polls from the likes of Zogby, Gallup, Harris, and the like, and I'm fed up with it. I mean, how much can these polls really tell us? The undecideds are still undecided, and the swing voters could still lean either way.

Luckily for us, there are a couple of far more accurate ways to measure the outcome of this election!

First, the bookies. It seems that recent indicators from online bookies show Bush with a lead in the election. Thats right, you can gamble on the election. Now, the article raises some points about the political background of the people who would be likely to actually gamble on a US Presidential election (or senate!) but I'm going to hold off from my rapier commentary. What I'm not going to hold off on, however, is saying that I bet this new fad will be a smashing success!!!

Well, once you've finished placing your wagers, you undecideds, you should go ask your children what they think, because they know better than they do. According to a Nickelodean poll, kids in the country think Kerry is going to win the election. And this isn't child's play (haha, rapier!!!) either, as the poll has predicted the last four elections!!!

So its a good idea to remember that while some pollsters are trying to figure out which way people are actually going to vote in the elections, others are doing far more entertaining things that may actually tell us more about who is going to win. Although, since I give you two conflicting reports, this entire article should probably cancel itself out.

Speaking of being canceled and taking bets, anyone want to put a few bucks on The Benefactor?

Off Day

I know that I've been keeping you guys on the edge of your seats the past few days, so I'm going to try and cool things off today and not give you anything important. The problem is, there are some important polls that were released Tuesday, and I have to show them to you, I mean, its my job, right? (Don't answer that)

So I'm going to try something interesting. I'm going to mix serious polling news in with the frivolous, superficial dreck you all have come to expect from reality television. Maybe it'll hold your interest, for once.

1. First of all, Bush is maintaining a slim lead in polls. As we've seen the past few days, this lead might not transfer over to the electoral college - could this be a repeat of the 2000 election?

2. Hey, the BBC is running an online poll on your favorite celebrity! Help out Lindsay Lohan guys, she only has 5 percent!

3. Bush has managed to almost double his popularity amoung blacks - an impressive acomplishment to say the least. I wonder exactly what is going on here - it would be interesting to find out where he was getting this boost from. I have a feeling evangelicals across race lines will probably be supporting the President.

4. And I thought you might just be interested to know that Forbes was running an online poll on which celebrity is most overrated! Sorry, all of them isn't an answer.

5. Finally, there is a really good election tracking page over at Washington Post.

So now comes the inevitable part where I have to explain myself and why I did whatever zany thing I did today. I could say, well, if you were to look at those celebrity polls, that the numbers of people voting are high, real high, that the numbers of people voting in those polls are higher than just the hits the Washington Post election tracker is probably getting. I could say that, but then I'd be trying to extract meaning from something that is devoid of it. And that would be silly!!!

Polling Re-Cap

Well, the debates are over, and now we've entered that strange otherworldly period prior to the election, in which anything could happen. I'm counting on an Independence Day style alien strike to stir up the voters - what are you banking on?

In the meantime, some new polling info that should peak your interest:

First off, this new poll from USA Today has Bush pulling ahead by 8 points. So it's over, right? I can go to sleep now, right?

Well, no Jimmy, not quite yet.

First off, check this new electoral vote predictor from Slate. It shows Kerry ahead, a dubious assertion to be sure, excerpt for the fact that, based on individual state polls, thats the way the cookie is crumbling.

In a situation where several senate votes are also closer than ever, we can be sure to see a pretty exciting couple of weeks - people in Florida and Ohio should probably abstain from watching TV unless they want to be bombarded by adverstising. Unless, of course, you get some sort of sick thrill from political ads, in which case, more power to you.

So, while Florida E-Voting machines continue to break down (but less than before!!!) and pollsters continue to miss all those cell phones, remember that you, savvy reader, are the only one who knows exactly how this election is going to turn out.

Oh, yeah, if you do know for sure, and you could tell me, I'd appreciate it.

Tied Down

Back in the day, Presidential elections were pretty much the same as they are now. One or two states decided who won. In the late 1800's, those two states were Indiana and New York. Besides that, the south traditionally voted Democratic, the north Republican. The west was a toss up, but back in the day, the West didn't matter because no one lived there.

And now the election comes down to just a few states again. Besides the several states that are virtual ties, the latest polls from Florida, and New Hampshire actually show exact ties, according to Electoral-Vote.com.

What does this mean for the nation? Are we really becoming more polarized? Is America really in dire shape this election cycle?

Other countries seem to think so.

This could be a major problem. So, here is what I think we need to do - bring back the Communist Russians! I mean, no more pansy quasi-totalitarian Putin stuff. We need the evil godless communists back as a world power we can oppose. Because, as everyone knows, there cannot be good without evil!!!

Heir Debatable!

You will be obvlivious to the Atom and his Package (It's a band) reference in the title, but it's ok because I'm cooler than you and am supposed to reference things you won't necessarily understand. That makes me witty.

Anyway, just wanted to add a final post-debate poll, from Survey USA, which shows a close debate in some states, and not so close in others. All in all the most complete debate poll yet, and overall it shows Kerry coming out somewhat ahead.

I'll have more obscure references and links later today after work.

Post-Debate?

On the left side of the ring - bam - we've got Senator Kerry, on the right side - zing - we've got President George Bush! Are you ready for the Dammage in Gammage (Gammage Auditorium of Arizona State, that is)!?

Well, you were ready, at least. And when the pollsters called, America, you answered!!! It just depends on who was polling you. I'm going to pretend all those snap polls right after the debate never happened (they're notoriously innacurate) and we're going to focus on the other, more reliable polls, taken today.

First off, lets get the MSNBC online poll out of the way. It's going overwhelmingly to Kerry, but one could argue that the sort of person answering polls online is more likely to be liberal than conservative.

Second, the ABC poll. This one shows the debate as a draw, with Kerry maintaining a lead of one percent over Bush. But lets look closely, people. Check out this from the link on ABC's site:

The audience for the third debate was a bit more Republican in its
allegiance: Among viewers, 38 percent identified themselves as Republicans, 30
percent as Democrats and 28 percent as independents. That makes the draw more of an accomplishment for Kerry.

Interesting...so what exactly would the numbers be like if the respondants were more evenly devided Democrat/Republican? Well, thanks to CBS news and Gallup, we know.

In this Gallup poll, Kerry comes out ahead. This is somewhat surprising, as I may be the only person who thought that Bush's performance in the third debate was his best yet. But at any rate, it looks like the moderates have made their decision - indeed, maybe of them may have decided who had won the third debate before it happened!

It seems that in this poll taken prior to the debate Kerry was already thought to be the candidate that would come out ahead. Interesting stuff, and worth keeping track of before you vote.

That is, if you get to vote, based on those fancy new votin' machines they got down in Florida...

Final Stretch

Tonight is the last debate. You all must watch, because if you do not, there is an ancient gyspy/voodoo/aztec curse that involves feathers and cricket paddles, and much gnashing of teeth. And it will be invoked. And I don't know about you, but me, I prefer not to gnash my teeth. Much.

But just so you go into the debate knowing all there is to know about the current climate, here are the latest polls/election errata from today:

It seems that a few new polls indicate that the election is still very close, with Bush maintaining a slight lead, at least in the electoral college.

Also, remember all that cell-phone stuff? Here is a more recent article on the topic with some new insight. I am also running a related poll on the right side of the page, feel free to add your vote. Also of interest is a more general article detailing why the polls might not be quite as accurate as pollsters would lead you to believe. Of course, if you'd been reading my weblog, you'd be way ahead of all this right?

Lastly, Survey USA has released a poll that details the gender gap this election. Seems that women are leaning towards Kerry.

And I'm leaning towards writing a term paper on why the Russian Formulist school of filmmakers offers more to German Expressionism than the French Avant-Garde. Ahh, college.

Extreme Linkage

Guess what guys? I've got a new kind of post for you - it's EXTREME!!! Whoa. Now, these extreme posts won't happen very often. So buckle your safety belts and prepare yourself for more links than you can shake a stick or other sharp and pointy object at.

EXTREME Faith: Is the Republican party becoming the party of the faithful? Is the sky blue?
(Technically, the sky isn't actually blue, but pretend that was a properly phrased rhetorical question).

EXTREME Electoral College: Who is winning now? Maybe this new Newsweek interactive voter guide could help you figure it out. Or leave you more clueless than before. Take yer pick.

EXTREME Pay Per Gallup: Ever seen a Pollster before? Want to? Click here! Gallup is now broadcasting weekly webcasts about their polling. I expect Zogby to come out with the Pollsters Gone Wild series next week.

Wow, EXTREME! I think it was. All right guys. It's gonna be ok, you can relax now. Don't worry, I'm sure you can curl up in front of PAX or whatever network puts you to sleep best and forget this ever happened.

Slow Poll Day...

Not much in the news polling wise today. But wait! Don't go back to sleep! There are a couple of points of interest:

A new poll in Arksansas, which was previously looking to be a pretty close state, is now coming out for Bush by about 9%. This makes sense, and the previous numbers may be looked at as errata.

Remember last week when I was complaining about how pollsters don't check on third party candidates? Well, yeah, I complain every day, and you can't be expected to remember it all, but you should anyway. It seems that Zogby has done a national poll including third parties. As expected, there numbers are small, but large enough to have an impact in swing states - and this year there will be some close races.

Finally, a George Washington University Battleground poll shows that congressional races should be a close game also. Though it's a national poll and state polls are far more significant for figuring out senate races, the number of undecideds is very high.

So maybe it isn't such a slow poll day after all. It's just that I have come to expect constant updates on a little news ticker that scrolls by my optic nerve due to that implant I wanted, and I haven't gotten it yet, so I'm a little annoyed.

Debate Two: The Bloodening

Ok, so there wasn't any blood, but wasn't the second debate a good deal more interesting than the first? I mean, the candidates could walk around, for gosh sakes. And, you know, if they wanted too...I mean, it could have got physical. It didn't, but the possibility was there. And then I would have watched it instead of my reruns of Quantum Leap, honest.

Just kidding. Of course I watched it. And so did a good number of other Americans, to be sure. And now you want to know: Which candidate won?

Well, this time, the score was much closer, with a new Gallup poll showing Kerry with a slim lead against Bush, 47% to 45%. I'd call it a tie - what would you call it?

The race is still narrowing, with Kerry now nudging a slight electoral lead over Bush, while Bush seems to be holding a slight lead in the popular vote. Without question, key states are getting closer and closer.

Which is pretty exciting, if you're a polling geek like me. I expect that, short of some major event or the third debate going overwhelmingly to one side, we're gonna see these numbers continue to the election, with more mysterious bulges, pyschological disorders, and interesting arrests keeping us occupied until then.

Big Changes...

I will post more on this today when I get back from work, but big changes in poll numbers today...for a preview of what I'm going to be talking about check out this graph from
electoral-vote.com

The Waiting Game

No, not the movie you've never seen by Ken Liotti. And not the album by U.K. jazz star Claire Martin. No, I'm reffering to the election. We in the blogging world spend alot of time waiting.
Well, actually, not me. I don't spend very much time waiting, and if I did, I would do it in a self-reflexive Waiting For Godot styled wait with profound philosophical implications. But at any rate I don't have to do any waiting today.

There is a new poll out from Survey USA, showing the results of the Vice Presidential debate in fourteen states. Cheney came ahead in the states where one would expect him to come ahead, and the same for Edwards, for the most part, splitting 8-5 states in favor of Cheney. However, overall it still looks like a tie, and in fact the poll did find a tie in California.

Something else of interest is the Libertarian Candidate Michael Badnarik. After Nader Badnarik is the leading third-party candidate, and in fact is polling ahead of Nader in some states. The problem is, we can't really tell just how many votes he is gathering because pollsters aren't even asking about him. But in an election where a spoiler could make a big difference, a candidate who is consistenly garnering one - three percent of votes deserves attention. Unlike Nader, Badnarik draws votes from both Republicans and Democrats. But with debates limited to candidates drawing 15 percent of the vote or above, how would we know he existed?

Finally, just in case the debate system doesn't irk you, I'd like to crush your spirit with a few signs that our nation is polarized to the point of fisty-cuffs. Or worse.

Expect a look at the national polls tomorrow, as several more will be out then.

Draw, Pardner!

All right. I'm a little dissapointed. I was promised a Vice Presidential debate, and there was no vice in the debate. I mean, at the least, the two candidates could have swore a little more. The most we got was Edwards saying "whoops, I said Kerry" and the moderator saying "You only have 30 seconds, Mr. Vice President". Now, if she had followed that with "You only have 30 seconds...to SAVE THE WORLD!" then it would have been different. And Angelina Jolie could help him.

Both Cheney and Edwards are performing well in post-debate polls. This CBS poll has Edwards tabbed as the winner, while this ABC Poll gives Cheney the lead. So because you don't know what to think and need someone else to tell you, it seems that popular perception is that the debate was a draw.

It's tricky. Both candidates obviously performed well enough so that their constituents decided that they had come out on top. I'm starting to think that our debate system needs a good overhaul back to the good old days when candidates would come out with fisty-cuffs. Lincoln-Douglas, people. Luckily, the next debate will allow projectile launchers (read restriction number 2) inside balloons, so I can only assume there will be some wild nerf powered action.

Seriously folks, these debates are heavily controlled and regulated to the point where a major news outlet was able to write-up a post debate report prior to the debate!

But enough about my inner pain. Like I've said before, in order to really gauge public perception, we'll have to look at polls released in the next few days to see if the debate had any impact.

Speaking of match-up polls, this graph is really cool. Also, one really nice thing Cheney did during the debate was mention factcheck.org. An excellent resource this time of year.

veep veep!!!

I hope you're all planning on watching the Vice Presidential debate tonight, it's sure to be interesting, or better than watching your taped collection of Brisco County Junior.
Voice your opinion on which candidate will win over here, at this epollarity.com poll.

Also, check out Cheney's favorability ratings here and Edwards favorability ratings here. Looks like tonight could be a big night for Edwards, as many Americans seem unfamiliar with him.

And as for the title of today's post...well, it's a presidential race, and that rhymes with chase, and Wiley Coyote used to chase Road Runner, and...and...

Senate Summary

Electoral-vote.com has some great stats regarding the shifting in various senate races, so if you live in a hotly contested state you might want to check this out.

Sorry I haven't reported on senate races sooner. Back in the day, the halls of the senate were filled with the sort of violence and sensationalism that would have peaked my interest.

Also of note is a new post-debate poll from Zogby that shows the election getting pretty durn close.

Weekend Update

Great article from the LA Weekly about the wacky world of polling.

Also, they quote from Bejamin Disraeli in it. My favorite Whig!!!

We have a winner...

...according to The American Research Group (they're the ones who actually polled EVERY state a week or so ago) Kerry came ahead in three small polls asking who won the debate, by 10 percent, 10 percent, and 18 percent. Each of the questions are different so make sure you click on that first link to see their methodology.

Here is another article dealing with the same thing.

And, in case you want a poll from a different source, here is one from ABC news with numbers that are about the same.

Can't wait for the next debate in St. Louis. I hear they're going to allow black power pistol dueling. Sweet.