Consumer Unconfidence?

Just  to make sure you all stayed confused this week, I've been checking out some info on Consumer Confidence levels. So stop watching the Democratic Convention or Trading Spouses or whatever and get ready for these two "conflicting" polls:

A CBS/New York Times Poll conducted on June 23 - 27 revealed that 16% of Americans believe that they are better off financially than before Bush became President, 27% feel that they are worse off, 56% feel that they are the same, and 1% are unsure. (Margin of Error ± 3)

However, a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll found that 49% of Americans think they are better off now than they were four years ago, 36% think they are worse off, 14% think they are the same, and 1% are unsure, weakminded folk. (Margin of Error ± 3).

So what exactly is the deal with this?

Well, lets check out the questions. From the CBS Poll:

"Is your family financially better off today than it was before George W. Bush became president, is it worse off financially, or is it about the same as it was before George W. Bush became president?"

From the CNN Poll:

"Would you say you and your family are better off now than you were four years ago, or are you worse off now?"

Aha! Eureka! One is asking whether or not you are financially better off, the other is asking if you are just plain better off. Also, one references Bush, the other does not.

If only all the polls would ask the exact same questions and conduct their polls in the exact same fashion, it would make trying to figure out the disparity between polling numbers much more interesting.

 

Same Difference?

You might recall certain people mentioning that they feel that their is little difference between the Democratic and Republican parties - in certain areas, at least.

Well, a new Marist poll has found that 75% of Americans believe that it matters a great deal who wins the November election for President.
15% believe it only matters somewhat, 5% believe it matters not too much, and only 5% believe it matters not at all (Margin of Error ± 3.5).

This is quite an increase from the last time this poll was taken in March (about ten percent more feel that it matters a great deal).  Based on these numbers I feel safe saying that the American public is as galvanized as the trash can I never bother to take down to the curb. Sorry Dad.

See Dick Run!

There has been a certain amount of speculation in Washington about Dick Cheney not running recently. And, as always comes with speculation, polls that provoke more speculation. Heck, theres more speculation going on now than there was in September 1929! Ok, ok, I'll quit.
 
A Gallup poll conducted July 8-11 found that 59% of adults wanted Cheney to remain as veep, 34% wanted him out, and 7% are weak feeble minded sorts with no opinion (Margin of Error ± 6).
 
That poll was of all adults, Republicans polled even more in favor of keeping Cheney. And I can't blame them. In fact, Cheney and I have alot in common. Like, we both curse alot. Seriously though, this probably shows that he isn't quite as unpopular as was previously believed.
 
And on another note, I thought I was being pretty clever using that "See Dick Run" bit, only to discover that the Daily Show used it four years ago, when I was still teething. Darnit.
 
 
 
 

Poll Positions

Edwards Gives Kerry Boost Despite Pseudo-Homoerotic Photographs of Them Campaigning

Sure you've seen this? Of course you have, most likely trackbacked half a million times over.

But I'm here to tell you that such photos haven't actually stopped Edwards from making the gains that I (and many others) predicted he would give Kerry. A USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup poll from July 8th-11th found that 46% of voters favored Bush, 50% favored Kerry, and 2% each favored neither or had no opinion. (Margin of Error ± 4)

Despite the margin of error, this is good news for Kerry, as other recent polls (you might have to scroll down) had him trailing Bush by a percentage point or two.

For someone who's veep is a lawyer, that ain't bad.
Maybe everyone has watched Legally Blonde 2. That really made me like laywers.

America On Gay Marriage: No, Sort Of, Maybe

Recent polls have shown, as they so often do, absolutely nothing obvious about gay marriage. A CBS News Poll in May showed that Americans are split when it comes to gay marriage, with more against it than for it.

However, a much more recent poll shows that 48% of Americans are against a constitutional amendment outlawing States abilities to marry same sex couples, while 43% are for it. (Margin of Error ± 2)

Confusing? Maybe. But the real problem is the wording. If you ask whether Americans are for civil unions, the numbers are far different then if you ask about marriage alone. The same thing most likely happens when you ask about constitutional amendments - this recent poll, done by the University of Pennsylvania National Annenberg Election Survey may reflect popular attitudes on States' rights more than anything else.

I think we need to wait and see what effect those Kerry/Edwards photos have on the issue, don't you?

Do Two Johns Make a Right?

Get it? Two Johns? John Edwards and John Kerry? Nevermind.
So the question everyone is asking, besides what they're gonna eat next on Fear Factor, is this:

Is Kerry going to get a boost?

Excuse me? Do you really have to ask that? I mean, come on. John Edwards. Don't you just get a warm fuzzy feeling at the mere mention of his name? A CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll (scroll down to Edwards) found that Edwards is looking very good right now. He has 54% Favorable, 16% Unfavorable, 12% have never heard of him, and 18% have no opinion (Margin of Error ± 5)

These are, in fact, very good numbers. I'm tentatively going to say that Kerry is going to see the same boost that Bush got after Reagan's death. Edwards is a populist, and his numbers reflect that.
So he'll help Kerry out.

At least until everybody figures out that he is a lawyer.

Poll-ar Recap

If you’re like me, you’ve probably seen the talking heads on the TV a lot lately.
And, if you’re like me, you’re probably a little bummed that they’re just pundits and not the totally cool 80’s new wave band that went by the same name.

However, it does look like they’ve taken Dave Byrne’s advice and (bad pun warning - and there will be more to follow) stopped making sense. They’ve been mentioning some poll numbers that don’t seem to indicate a clear winner for November’s election, and you really just want to know what’s going on so you can get back to Celebrity Mole 7 – Toledo and your six pack of Michelob Ultra.

Well fear not gentle reader. I understand that pop-culture has reduced your attention span to that of Pauly Shore (I’m talking In the Army Now Shore) or some other equivalent non-humanoid lower species, and I am here to do all the thinking for you.

So let’s take a ride down memory lane for the month of June, in a vehicle composed entirely of poll results and duct tape:

Does Bedtime For Bonzo Equal Boost for Bush?

You know, Bedtime for Bonzo? The movie with Ronald Reagan and Bonzo the monkey? It was actually pretty funny. Anyway, has Reagan's death impacted Bush’s ratings? Yes…and no. According to a recent Pew Research Center survey Bush did receive a spike following Reagan’s death on June 5th. Before Reagan’s death, Pew polled Bush’s approval at 44%, his disapproval at 48%, and a healthy 8% “don’t know”. After Reagan’s death, his approval jumped to 50%, his disapproval dropped to 41%, and 9% remained “don’t know”. (Margin of Error ± 2.5)

Ok. So Bush got a boost. But since the Pew study (released on the 17th), several other polls and surveys have been taken. Did Bush keep his ratings up following Reagan’s death?

Some other polls showed a spike similar to the one reported by the Pew Center. For example, a University of Pennsylvania National Annenberg Election Survey done June 8-21, and a Fox News opinion poll done June 22-23 both indicate that Bush saw gains about the same as Pew.

However, the real question is how long that spike can last. A CBS News/New York Times Poll conducted June 23-27 paints a very different picture. They found that approval was back down to 42%, disapproval up to 51%, and 7% “don’t know”. (Margin of Error ±3)

This may indicate that Bush has already lost the increase he saw in early/mid June. Further violence in Iraq put national attention back in the Middle East, and despite Bush’s efforts at the recent NATO meeting in Turkey, the boost he saw may have only been good as long as Reagan was in our collective consciousness. We’ll need more approval surveys before we can have any good consensus on the matter, and trust me, we’ll get them.

Can Kerry Keep it Up?

Though Kerry has lost most of the 2-1 favorable approval ratings he had immediately following the March primaries, his numbers have remained about even, split between positive and negative, according to the recent Pew Center Survey. More recently, two different polls offered relatively disparate results for Kerry’s favorability.

A CBS News/New York Times Poll conducted June 22-23 found 29% favorable for Kerry, 35% Not Favorable, 26% Undecided and 10% Haven’t Heard Enough (Margin of Error ± 3). A Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll, conducted June 23-27, found 42% Favorable, 43% Unfavorable, 13% Can’t Say, and 2% Never Heard Of (Margin of Error - ± 3).

This is why it is difficult to compare polls done by different institutions. A glance at the CBS News Poll might make one think that Kerry is doing fairly poorly. So let’s take a look at the question asked for this poll:

"Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about John Kerry yet to have an opinion?"

Compare this to the Fox Poll:

"I'm going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have a generally favorable or unfavorable opinion of each. If you've never heard of one, please just say so. John Kerry."

Confusing, huh? Not quite. First of all, the CBS/New York Times Poll allowed for “Undecided”, and “Haven’t Heard Enough”. For Kerry, these two combined total 36%, larger than either the Favorable or Unfavorable numbers alone. The Fox Poll question, on the other hand, only allowed for three options. When people are forced to make a decision, Kerry comes out about even. If anything, these latest polls show that a surprisingly large number of swing voters remain up for grabs (though less voters are undecided when asked the same question about Bush). That is, if either candidate can pry voter attention away from yet another Britney Spears nuptial…

On the Money

Cold hard cash. I know, I haven’t seen it in a while either, what with credit cards, debit cards, and those surgically implanted microchips we all use to conduct monetary transactions nowadays. Supposedly they’re still minting it and a few congressmen think that a portrait of the Gipper might be a more appropriate than Hamilton on the 10-dollar bill.

Well, the votes are in, according to an ABC News Poll conducted on June 9-13, 36% support the measure, 54% oppose it, and 11% are unsure (Margin of Error ± 4.5). I can sympathize with the 11%. They’re probably thinking about that affair Hamilton had with Maria Reynolds. Scandalous, indeed. Seriously, what did Hamilton do that makes him worthy of being on the 10-dollar bill? Heckling the French? Heckling Jefferson? Heckling the First National Bank, which he started? Oh yeah, that. Slipped my mind.

So what to do with Reagan? He is pretty popular, after all.

I propose that we reprint the 10,000-dollar bill and stick him on there. Nobody cares about Salmon P. Chase anymore anyway – Radical Republicans circa the mid-1800’s are going out of style.

By the way, remember that movie, The Adventures of Pluto Nash, where they had pictures of Hillary Clinton on hundred dollar bills? Any one?